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Forum:2008 Pacific hurricane season/July
July Week One One after another after another after... So first Boris, then right behind it Cristina, then right behind THAT Douglas, and now, behind Douglas, NHC says 97E.INVEST "COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". EPac is definitely keeping things interesting... --Patteroast 20:37, 2 July 2008 (UTC) :Yeah this season is defenatley getting intresting as we have already had a basin crosser though it didnt retain its name. (Alma became Arthur. in the atlantic) Then i reckon either Boris will become a basin crosser as well (ie EPAC To CPAC) but it wont survive very long and will not be a threat to hawiai. if Boris does not develop i think that Cristina may well redevlop into a new depression but again will not be a threat to hawaii. And then i come to the last fish spinner which i reckon could come close to land. then i come to this latest disturbance in the epac which i reckon will form and break Almas record for formaing so far west Jason Rees 22:24, 2 July 2008 (UTC) ::As for 97E, I predict a Cat. 1 landfall on Baja. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:04, 3 July 2008 (UTC) :::Well i was right about Boris getting to the CPAC as its now being mentioned in the CPAC TWO but i doubt it will redevelop or if it does it will become Kika so boris is dead Jason Rees 21:55, 8 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression 5-E 97E has strengthened into 5-E, forecast to become Elida. NHC sez: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS SOME SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS OR SO. --Patteroast 23:41, 5 July 2008 (UTC) :NHC's track puts it as a TS very soon, perhaps at the next advisory. A tropical storm warning has already been issued for a section of the coast of Mexico! Looks like it might impact the Mexican mainland, or perhaps hit Baja. However, if you look at the GFDL or GFS loop, it clearly depicts a hurricane springing up out or nowhere to the southeast of the storm's current position. Guess what, we might have our Fausto! If it develops, it would become the second storm this year to be predicted by models a week in advance. It's not even an invest yet, but just might develop. If it does, both models predict a Cat. 1 within 120 hours, possible rapid strengthening afterwards. After all, the water in that area of the east Pacific is a lot warmer than any other part of the Atlantic Bertha's expected to go through. Let's watch both this storm, and perhaps more that may follow. That's right, one after another after another! 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:49, 6 July 2008 (UTC) ::Definitely worth keeping an eye on the area east of 5E... there's tropical moisture all over the place, and I could definitely see some of it breaking off. It'll be interesting to see if that predicted hurricane comes through or not. As for 5E itself... lots of moisture and energy, not much organization (although it seems to just be getting its act together). A good distraction while we play wait-and-see with where Bertha's going, at the very least. --Patteroast 10:22, 6 July 2008 (UTC) :::NHC is no longer forecasting that 5E will ever strengthen to a tropical storm. --Patteroast 02:05, 7 July 2008 (UTC) ::::And now NHC says the center's over land and it's dying. So much for Elida (at least for now.)--Patteroast 08:52, 7 July 2008 (UTC) 90C.INVEST Interesting blob out in CPac, NRL's calling it 96C. --Patteroast 23:41, 5 July 2008 (UTC) :Huh? Isn't it 90C? I've fixed it. There are only two models, no telling which way it will go. We may have our Kika! Who knows, maybe it will even hit Hawaii, or it might head west and become a typhoon! It's near the Midway & Lisianski islands. The water there's warm enough for development, may be one to watch. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:42, 6 July 2008 (UTC) ::Hmm, thought 96C was strange for the first invest of the year for the region. But that is what it said earlier. In any case, it's listed at 90C now. --Patteroast 06:23, 6 July 2008 (UTC) :::Poof. --Patteroast 08:49, 7 July 2008 (UTC) ::::I really hated to see this one go. I had high hopes for it. I'd like to see the Central Pacific rattle off another hot streak like it did in 2002. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:25, 11 July 2008 (UTC) Week Two 06E.ELIDA AoI: Off the coast of Guatemala I don't know if you can see this one on satellite, but 5/6 models predict at least a TD and 4/6 models a TS within 120 hours. Who knows, maybe this will be our Elida, or maybe a second storm will form and become Fausto. It's too early to tell at this point, there isn't even an invest yet, but this just might develop, like how the models predicted Bertha a week in advance. If it develops, it might affect Mexico or curve back out to sea. Well, once again, let's see if it develops, and let's see what it does, if anything. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:44, 9 July 2008 (UTC) 98E.INVEST Yep, it's an invest now. On satellite this looks like a TS already. SHIPS predicts a strong TS within 120 h. Who knows, we might have out Elida, and maybe even a Fausto! Another system predicted in advance. This time, it's expected to turn out to sea. Let's see what it does. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:18, 10 July 2008 (UTC) :Ah, the assembly line continues. It's like the 1995 Parade of Storms Pacific style. Except that most of the storms on this assembly line have been chicken sh*t. But maybe this one will be better. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:21, 11 July 2008 (UTC) ::This disturbance looks very healthy. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/avn.jpg -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:36, 12 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Elida Yay, a TS! Could reach a cat. 1, but also heading into the open sea. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:19, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :NHC predicts, as you say, hurricane status but only for a day. Unless Elida does something unexpected, I don't suspect much from this storm...unless it interacts with 99E to the north. - Enzo Aquarius 16:24, 12 July 2008 (UTC) ::Ha! Am I good or am I just that good? Guess who just smoked that one less than six hours before the first advisory? Yup, that was me. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:48, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :::I was going to say that only 1/9 models predicted a hurricane, and now NHC is no longer predicting one. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:03, 13 July 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Elida Hmm, I never would have guessed! It's expected to soon weaken, though. Doesn't anyone care about them fishspinners anymore? 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:53, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :This one caught me off-guard...same with the NHC (they predicted it would stay as a TS yesterday). Too bad she won't have this status for too long. - Enzo Aquarius 17:10, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::Enh, 75 knots is a stiff breeze. I reckon it'll stay a hurricane for a little while longer. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:09, 15 July 2008 (UTC) :::It's a cat. 2, it just doesn't want to weaken! It could be with us for the next five days before it weakens to a depression. 2007Astro'sHurricane Tropical Storm Elida (once more) It's heading towards Hawaii, could emerge in the central Pacific as a TD and give Hawaii rain. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:13, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :Now Elida's weakening like she just swallowed cyanide. If this keeps up, Hawaii's not gonna get a cloud. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:43, 18 July 2008 (UTC) ::Would somebody call an undertaker please? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:20, 19 July 2008 (UTC) 99E. INVEST Yep, another invest. This one's looking rather well organised, although SHIPS predicts quick dissapation. Let's see what this and the other systems do, if anything. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:57, 11 July 2008 (UTC) I like how the LBAR model on Weather Underground takes both 98E and 99E straight up into Los Angeles! I know the water's cold, but what a fun sight to see! 03:32, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :Geez, the EPAC's been cranking out disturbances faster than Henry Ford cranked out Model Ts. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:34, 12 July 2008 (UTC) ::Poof. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:45, 13 July 2008 (UTC) 07E.FAUSTO AoI: Off the coast of Costa Rica CMC and GFS really like this one, merging it with Elida and strengthening it to a hurricane. Let's see what it does, if anything. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:19, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :You been drinkin' Astro, or am I just not awake because I don't see anything but Elida and scattered clouds. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:51, 12 July 2008 (UTC) ::Well, the models ''were predicting something, but now they've weakened it. For a remnant of what I mean, see here. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:27, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :::I was right, NHC is predicting a medium-chance of development. I think this could affect Elida indeed, as it should catch up to it in a few days, perhaps even resulting in a Fujiwhara! 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:47, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Huh, I guess I should pay more attention to the models. I see it now and it looks interesting enough. You have a Fujiwara fetish don't you? You never fail to bring it up. Trust me, Fujiwara will never again get as incredible as it did in 1997 when the sexiest couple in the history of the planet did their little dance east of the Philippines. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:16, 13 July 2008 (UTC) 90E. INVEST It's been invested. Lol, I don't think that it will catch up to Elida now. Anyway, 7/9 models predict a TS or above, and SHIPS interestingly brings it up to a cat. 1. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seven Yup, it's finally a TD. NHC predicts a hurricane. Let's see what it does, but it's likely to become a fish like Elida. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:04, 16 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fausto That was fast, it's a TS and gaining. NHC predicts a cat. 1, but nobody is paying attention, yay! 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:05, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :Pretty much following the tail of Elida. Although NHC's track shows TS status through five days, I'm sure Fausto will reach category 1 status by that fifth day. - Enzo Aquarius 02:38, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::NHC predicts a cat. 1, but GFDL predicts a cat. 3 and HWRF a cat. 4!! 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:11, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :::Wow! Look at it now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/avn.jpg! That, my friends, is going to be a hurricane very very soon (if it's not already). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:10, 18 July 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Fausto It's a hurricane now. Could keep going northwest, likely to strengthen further before weakening. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:55, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :Told ya. Cat 2 tomorrow says the forecast. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:46, 18 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fausto (Again) Weakening, but looks pretty neat from visual. Expected to become a TD soon and fully dissipate by Thursday. - Enzo Aquarius 16:56, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :Final advisory issued. Fausto's gone with Cristobal likely to soon follow. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:01, 23 July 2008 (UTC) 08E.GENEVIEVE 91E.INVEST This is the remnants of 95L in the Atlantic. SHIPS predicts another hurricane, will likely follow Elida and Fausto in their footsteps. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:05, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :Looks good. I wouldn't be surprised if we see something from this. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:02, 20 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression 8E Yup, that's right, a TD. Probably a fish, but expected to be a cat. 1. If Dolly strengthens enough, it could give this system, you guessed it, a minor Fujiwara, which would keep this storm far enough south for further strengthening. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:00, 21 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Genevieve One after the other after the other. Supposed to strengthen into a hurricane like Elida and Fausto and *snore*. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:02, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :The Eastern Pacific season these past few weeks seems to be following a pattern. :P Doesn't look fully developed, but still expected to reach hurricane status for about a day or two by mid-Wednesday. - Enzo Aquarius 16:58, 22 July 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Genevieve Gee, it's a hurricane now, how unexpected. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:15, 25 July 2008 (UTC) :Indeed, it did just kind of jump up there suddenly. It's now back to a tropical storm and weakening. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:46, 26 July 2008 (UTC) 91C. INVEST Yay, another Central Pacific invest! I think this might actually contain some of Elida's remnants but I'm not sure. The water here's warmer than where 97L is but it might just end up like 90C although it looks pretty well-developed. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:53, 24 July 2008 (UTC) :Whatever it was, it's gone now. There is some pretty intense convection near 170W fast approaching the dateline, but CPHC doesn't seem to think too much of it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 17:51, 26 July 2008 (UTC)